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Over and Under Reactions Heading Into Week 12 of College Football

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Overreactions

AK: Notre Dame – If you are a new reader to the blog you won’t know this, but for all of you that have been around, you can tell that I am not a big proponent of Notre Dame and where they stand in the playoff rankings.  Joel Klatt summed it up perfectly this week saying “Notre Dame has an affiliation with the ACC, they lost to Clemson, they are a team who can’t win their conference.” They will end up with a similar record to many other one loss teams, only those teams will have better wins. I just hope the Notre Dame name doesn’t get into the mind of the Playoff Committee and a worthy team loses out because of it.

AK: Heisman Race – This was at one point a no-brainer.  Leonard Fournette was a runaway winner until about three weeks ago.  Now, the field is wide open and that may be for the best.  Derrick Henry may be at the top of the chart right now but there are 6 or 7 others with a legitimate chance to be holding that trophy.  This time of year one big performance in a big game could be the thing that gets someone that trophy overnight.

SM: Ohio State vs. Michigan State – The Buckeyes need to show the committee what they are capable of in this game.  They are the Florida State of last year right now.  Finding ways to win, but never showing dominance.  A win by 10+ points would do the trick.  Look for Ezekiel Elliot to have a statement game.  

SM:  South Carolina Coaching Position – The Ole Ball Coach did a fine job for the Gamecocks.  The job should not be a high profile one.  It is in the strongest and deepest conference in all of college football and this school does not sit atop of that conference.  Recruiting is too competitive.  USC and Miami will be more enticing.  Sorry, South Carolina, the beaches of California and Florida are just prettier than you.

Under Reactions

AK:  MACtion – Does anyone else love being able to watch the MAC on Wednesday nights?  Why don’t more small conferences do this to carve out their niche and get noticed?  Sure none of these teams going to make the playoff, but this exposure could get them into a little better bowl game than they may or may not deserve.  This could be something great for college basketball as well and it should be something more conferences look into doing.

AK: Upset Saturday – Last Saturday was one of the best when it comes to slate of games and upsets.  Oregon over Stanford, Oklahoma over Baylor, Arkansas dispatching LSU, not to mention more than a few games where a highly ranked team barely escaped.  It was a great Saturday for college football fans and I hope this week brings us more of the same.

SM: Les Miles – He needs to win this game against Ole Miss.  I am not sure if LSU would ever fire Les Miles, but they may be looking to move on if they finish another season behind Saban and a couple other SEC schools.  LSU has higher standards.  Lots of good coaches out there.  Bring your A game this Saturday, Les.

SM:  UNC Tar Heels – The Heels are coming on strong.  A long way out of the playoff picture, but could square off against Clemson in the ACC championship.  That would be a big final statement for a playoff bid, if Clemson is still undefeated of course.  Keep an eye on the Heels.

Betting Lines

AK: Last Week 2-1

  • Take Indiana +3 against Maryland.  Indiana had no trouble scoring last weekend against Michigan and let’s just say Maryland doesn’t have a defense quite in that category.
  • Take Ole Miss -4.5 against LSU, Sean I don’t care if Leonard Fournette has a boulder on his shoulder and Les Miles is coaching for his career.  Until they get a quarterback that can actually throw, all good SEC defenses, Ole Miss included, will stack the box and force Brandon Harris to win the game.  He won’t.
  • Take Michigan St +13 against Ohio State.  The style of play Michigan State wants to play is going to limit possessions and wear down the defense.  Ohio State wins, but Michigan State keeps it close.

SM:  Last week: 3-0 (Easy Money)

  • Take North Carolina (-6.5) over Virginia Tech.  UNC made a big leap last week in the rankings.  They are set on continuing that jump.  Easy money.
  • Iowa (-21) will not cover against Purdue.  They are not three touchdowns better than anyone in the Big Ten.  They will win by 13-17 points.  NOT 21.  Let’s get a round of Boilermakers.  Easy money.
  • Take LSU to cover (+4.5) against Ole Miss.  Les Miles needs this win and Leonard Fournette will be running with a chip on his shoulder. Geaux Tigers.  Easy money.

Credit all authors of images used in both article and as cover image : Alex Kjellsen and Sean Melmer

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